Australia’s renewables rollout and emissions reduction not at “speed and scale”

Labor’s ability to meet its 2030 renewable electricity target will depend on the start of projects which have yet to begin, with Australia’s independent Climate Change Authority (CCA) warning measures to reduce emissions and increase renewables had “not yet reached the speed and scale we need”.

The caution follows threats of statewide blackouts in NSW on Thursday, after energy demands on the grid due to sweltering temperatures coincided with outages at key coal-fired power plants.

While the 2024 Annual Progress Report released on Wednesday said while Australia was on track to meet its 82 per cent 2030 target, and had made “significant progress,” achieving it would be dependent on the on-time rollout of its environmental and energy policies.

This includes its $22.7bn Future Made in Australia Bill, which has yet to pass parliament but aims to supercharge investment into renewable energy projects, and its New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, which will come into effect from January 1 2025, and incentivises car companies to supply cars which are more fuel-efficient.

While Australia’s emissions were falling, the report said current rates would not achieve the 2030 reductions target of 43 per cent below 2005 levels.

The report warned projects “must deliver the forecast outcomes on time for emissions to fall fast enough to get there,” leaving little breathing room for delays.

“Every additional tonne of emissions adds to the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and increases the risk of dangerous climate impacts,” the report said.

“Cutting emissions as far and as fast as possible is an urgent priority.”

Wind, solar and firming technology like battery storage also must be accelerated, and requires “further action” so Australia can meet its target.

Although the CCA acknowledged the Capital Investment Scheme, which works to boost funding of renewable projects, it urged more needed to be done.

“Accelerating the rate at which more renewables are brought online is essential for decarbonising Australia’s electricity grid and preparing for the projected closure of up to 90 per cent of existing coal generation capacity over the next decade,” the report said.

Among the CCA’s 10 recommendations, which included more government investment into solar and community battery projects, it said Australia’s energy grid will also need “limited gas-fired generation” in order to “maintain reliability … at times of low renewable output and/or high demand”.

“The power generation capability of these installations should be able to operate on natural gas and renewable gases, and if gas network and storage constraints require, liquid fuels including fuels derived from renewable sources (such as hydrogen),” it said.

In his annual speech to parliament on Thursday, Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the blackout scares in NSW were largely driven by the “unreliability of coal”.

“The notion that Australia’s ageing coal fleet should – or in fact could – be relied on to an even greater extent to power our system, is nothing shout of magical thinking,” he said.

“Already consumers are feeling the impacts of running old coal generators longer.

“There has not been a single day in the past 18 months without some coal fired generation experiencing unplanned outages.”

Mr Bowen also acknowledged that 2024 marked an “all-time record for renewables,” with new data from the Clean Energy Regulator stating up to 7.5GW of renewable energy was connected to the grid this year.

“This world-beating uptake has been made possible by the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme,” he said.

“And it means we’ve now got more rooftop solar capacity in our system than the entire fleet of coal fired power stations across the country.”